{
  "_description": "치료 타이밍 모델의 계층적 베이즈 UQ: class별 모집단 (lag,tau) 사후분포, 시험 간 분산, 식별성, 사후예측 밴드, LOTO 커버리지(mean-only vs population).",
  "model": "y_ij ~ N(A_i·(1-exp(-(t-lag_i)/tau_i)), sigma);  lag_i~N(mu_lag,sd_lag), tau_i~N(mu_tau,sd_tau).",
  "classes": {
    "JAK_inhibitor": {
      "class": "JAK_inhibitor",
      "n_trajectories": 5,
      "trajectory_ids": [
        "deuruxolitinib_THRIVE-AA1_12mg",
        "deuruxolitinib_THRIVE-AA1_8mg",
        "deuruxolitinib_THRIVE-AA2_12mg",
        "brepocitinib_NCT02974868",
        "ritlecitinib_NCT02974868"
      ],
      "lag_mean": 0.742,
      "lag_sd": 0.075,
      "lag_hdi90": [
        0.635,
        0.837
      ],
      "between_trial_lag_sd": 0.112,
      "tau_mean": 2.99,
      "tau_sd": 0.949,
      "tau_hdi90": [
        1.492,
        4.483
      ],
      "between_trial_tau_sd": 1.958,
      "sigma_mean": 0.027,
      "mulag_mutau_corr": -0.076,
      "prior_lag": 1.5,
      "prior_tau": 4.0,
      "post_band": {
        "months": [
          0,
          0.5,
          1,
          1.5,
          2,
          3,
          4,
          6,
          9,
          12,
          18,
          24
        ],
        "median": [
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.0831,
          0.2248,
          0.3458,
          0.5334,
          0.6666,
          0.8297,
          0.938,
          0.9774,
          0.997,
          0.9996
        ],
        "lo": [
          -0.045,
          -0.0438,
          -0.0003,
          0.0853,
          0.157,
          0.2777,
          0.3782,
          0.5452,
          0.7065,
          0.8091,
          0.9117,
          0.9408
        ],
        "hi": [
          0.045,
          0.0508,
          0.9136,
          0.9935,
          0.9974,
          1.0046,
          1.0096,
          1.0166,
          1.0251,
          1.0321,
          1.0387,
          1.0418
        ]
      },
      "loto_coverage": {
        "nominal": 0.9,
        "mean_only_empirical": 0.531,
        "population_empirical": 1.0,
        "n_points": 32,
        "by_trajectory": [
          {
            "held": "deuruxolitinib_THRIVE-AA1_12mg",
            "n": 6,
            "mean_in": 5,
            "pop_in": 6
          },
          {
            "held": "deuruxolitinib_THRIVE-AA1_8mg",
            "n": 6,
            "mean_in": 5,
            "pop_in": 6
          },
          {
            "held": "deuruxolitinib_THRIVE-AA2_12mg",
            "n": 6,
            "mean_in": 5,
            "pop_in": 6
          },
          {
            "held": "brepocitinib_NCT02974868",
            "n": 7,
            "mean_in": 1,
            "pop_in": 7
          },
          {
            "held": "ritlecitinib_NCT02974868",
            "n": 7,
            "mean_in": 1,
            "pop_in": 7
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "finasteride": {
      "class": "finasteride",
      "n_trajectories": 3,
      "trajectory_ids": [
        "finasteride_1mg_NCT01231607",
        "finasteride_1mg_Kaufman_2yr",
        "finasteride_oral_P3074_NCT03004469"
      ],
      "lag_mean": 0.943,
      "lag_sd": 0.642,
      "lag_hdi90": [
        0.086,
        1.863
      ],
      "between_trial_lag_sd": 0.514,
      "tau_mean": 2.99,
      "tau_sd": 2.237,
      "tau_hdi90": [
        0.109,
        6.064
      ],
      "between_trial_tau_sd": 3.3,
      "sigma_mean": 0.046,
      "mulag_mutau_corr": -0.118,
      "prior_lag": 3.0,
      "prior_tau": 6.0,
      "post_band": {
        "months": [
          0,
          0.5,
          1,
          1.5,
          2,
          3,
          4,
          6,
          9,
          12,
          18,
          24
        ],
        "median": [
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.0618,
          0.2069,
          0.3287,
          0.5361,
          0.6798,
          0.8493,
          0.9533,
          0.9851,
          0.9985,
          0.9998
        ],
        "lo": [
          -0.0838,
          -0.0717,
          -0.0517,
          -0.0311,
          -0.009,
          0.0843,
          0.198,
          0.3546,
          0.5146,
          0.6342,
          0.7739,
          0.8467
        ],
        "hi": [
          0.085,
          0.7056,
          0.9896,
          1.012,
          1.0258,
          1.0432,
          1.0498,
          1.0602,
          1.0661,
          1.071,
          1.0768,
          1.0794
        ]
      },
      "loto_coverage": {
        "nominal": 0.9,
        "mean_only_empirical": 0.778,
        "population_empirical": 0.889,
        "n_points": 9,
        "by_trajectory": [
          {
            "held": "finasteride_1mg_NCT01231607",
            "n": 3,
            "mean_in": 3,
            "pop_in": 3
          },
          {
            "held": "finasteride_1mg_Kaufman_2yr",
            "n": 3,
            "mean_in": 2,
            "pop_in": 2
          },
          {
            "held": "finasteride_oral_P3074_NCT03004469",
            "n": 3,
            "mean_in": 2,
            "pop_in": 3
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "dutasteride": {
      "class": "dutasteride",
      "n_trajectories": 2,
      "trajectory_ids": [
        "dutasteride_0.5mg_NCT01231607",
        "dutasteride_0.5mg_NCT00441116"
      ],
      "lag_mean": 1.096,
      "lag_sd": 0.447,
      "lag_hdi90": [
        0.311,
        1.679
      ],
      "between_trial_lag_sd": 0.585,
      "tau_mean": 2.289,
      "tau_sd": 1.524,
      "tau_hdi90": [
        0.1,
        4.196
      ],
      "between_trial_tau_sd": 2.374,
      "sigma_mean": 0.0,
      "mulag_mutau_corr": -0.012,
      "prior_lag": 2.5,
      "prior_tau": 5.0,
      "post_band": {
        "months": [
          0,
          0.5,
          1,
          1.5,
          2,
          3,
          4,
          6,
          9,
          12,
          18,
          24
        ],
        "median": [
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.1809,
          0.356,
          0.6106,
          0.7653,
          0.9161,
          0.9818,
          0.9961,
          0.9998,
          1.0
        ],
        "lo": [
          -0.0,
          -0.0,
          -0.0,
          -0.0,
          0.0,
          0.1394,
          0.2673,
          0.4566,
          0.6427,
          0.7483,
          0.895,
          0.9481
        ],
        "hi": [
          0.0,
          0.284,
          0.9498,
          0.9995,
          1.0,
          1.0,
          1.0,
          1.0,
          1.0,
          1.0,
          1.0,
          1.0
        ]
      },
      "loto_coverage": null
    }
  },
  "overall_coverage": {
    "nominal": 0.9,
    "mean_only_empirical": 0.585,
    "population_empirical": 0.976,
    "n_points": 41
  }
}