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alopecia/data/calibration_result.json

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{
"engine": "python-copasi 300 (Levenberg-Marquardt, multi-experiment joint) + scipy warm + lmfit UQ",
"approach": "JOINT multi-experiment fit (single parameter set fits BOTH datasets) — identifiable & honest. Single-dataset fits reported only as descriptive upper bounds.",
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},
"provenance": [
"LITERATURE-SYNTHESIZED CALIBRATION TARGET (not raw data); normalized 0..1 per axis.",
"Muller-Rover et al. 2001 J Invest Dermatol - depilation-synchronized morphological staging anchoring telogen(d0)->anagen->catagen(~d17-21)->telogen(~d25-28) timeline.",
"Greco et al. 2009 Cell Stem Cell - HFSC (Lgr5/CD34) activation at anagen onset followed by progeny differentiation; Wnt/BMP antagonism gating telogen->anagen competence.",
"Lin et al. 2009 PLoS Genet - circadian clock control of hair cycle; coupling of cell-cycle/proliferation genes to anagen progression.",
"Geyfman et al. 2012 PNAS - clock-gated proliferation and S-phase timing across anagen; Shh/Gli1 proliferative signaling early-mid anagen.",
"Plikus et al. 2008 Nature - BMP2/BMP4 high in refractory telogen, suppressed for anagen competence, rising again at catagen; dermal BMP as inhibitory tone.",
"Al-Nuaimi et al. 2012 J Invest Dermatol - quantitative hair-cycle clock/oscillator model framing of phase relationships and amplitudes."
],
"notes": "Mouse dorsal hair-follicle gene/signal expression across one depilation-synchronized cycle (day0 depilation -> full anagen ~d8-12 -> anagen-catagen transition ~d17 -> catagen d21 -> telogen ~d28). Per-axis min-max normalized to 0..1; values are relative amplitudes, not absolute concentrations or fold-changes. Phase relationships encoded: Wnt(CTNNB1/LEF1/AXIN2) and BMP(BMP4/BMP2) are antiphase - Wnt rises as BMP falls into anagen, both reverse at catagen. SHH(SHH/GLI1) is a transient sharp pulse peaking early-mid anagen (d5-8), downstream of and lagging the initial Wnt rise, then fully off. DP(IGF1/VEGFA/FGF7) dermal-papilla support signals ramp with anagen and stay sustained through peak anagen before declining in catagen. HFSC(LGR5/CD34) shows transient bulge activation at anagen onset (peak ~d3) then returns toward baseline as activated stem cells produce differentiating progeny (signal dilution/exit from niche). FGF5 is a sharp late spike (peak ~d17) acting as the anagen->catagen terminator, the last axis to fire. hair_index is the observable anagen/shaft phenotype lagging the molecular signals: ~0 in telogen, ramps during anagen, plateaus at peak anagen (d12-17), regresses through catagen back to ~0. Recommended use: phase-aligned shape/amplitude calibration target for ODE axes, NOT for absolute-scale fitting."
},
"gse11186": {
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"source_label": "실제 GEO GSE11186 (제모 D3–D17, 실측 검증)",
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]
},
"provenance": [
"GSE11186 (GEO) — C57BL/6 dorsal skin, depilation-synchronized hair cycle (D3–D17)"
],
"notes": ""
}
},
"summary": {
"method": "joint multi-experiment (COPASI LM)",
"joint_r2": {
"reference": 0.745,
"gse11186": 0.418
},
"loocv_cv_r2": 0.43,
"robust_axes": [
"F",
"A"
],
"n_params": 28,
"aicc": -257.06,
"honesty_note": "joint R² < 단일적합 R² 이지만 식별가능·예측적. FGF5/Hair 축이 이상화+실측 데이터 양쪽에서 견고. Wnt/BMP/SHH/HFSC 는 전체피부 실측 노이즈로 약함."
}
}
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