alopecia/data/bayes_uq_results.json

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{
"_description": "치료 타이밍 모델의 계층적 베이즈 UQ: class별 모집단 (lag,tau) 사후분포, 시험 간 분산, 식별성, 사후예측 밴드, LOTO 커버리지(mean-only vs population).",
"model": "y_ij ~ N(A_i·(1-exp(-(t-lag_i)/tau_i)), sigma); lag_i~N(mu_lag,sd_lag), tau_i~N(mu_tau,sd_tau).",
"classes": {
"JAK_inhibitor": {
"class": "JAK_inhibitor",
"n_trajectories": 5,
"trajectory_ids": [
"deuruxolitinib_THRIVE-AA1_12mg",
"deuruxolitinib_THRIVE-AA1_8mg",
"deuruxolitinib_THRIVE-AA2_12mg",
"brepocitinib_NCT02974868",
"ritlecitinib_NCT02974868"
],
"lag_mean": 0.742,
"lag_sd": 0.075,
"lag_hdi90": [
0.635,
0.837
],
"between_trial_lag_sd": 0.112,
"tau_mean": 2.99,
"tau_sd": 0.949,
"tau_hdi90": [
1.492,
4.483
],
"between_trial_tau_sd": 1.958,
"sigma_mean": 0.027,
"mulag_mutau_corr": -0.076,
"prior_lag": 1.5,
"prior_tau": 4.0,
"post_band": {
"months": [
0,
0.5,
1,
1.5,
2,
3,
4,
6,
9,
12,
18,
24
],
"median": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0831,
0.2248,
0.3458,
0.5334,
0.6666,
0.8297,
0.938,
0.9774,
0.997,
0.9996
],
"lo": [
-0.045,
-0.0438,
-0.0003,
0.0853,
0.157,
0.2777,
0.3782,
0.5452,
0.7065,
0.8091,
0.9117,
0.9408
],
"hi": [
0.045,
0.0508,
0.9136,
0.9935,
0.9974,
1.0046,
1.0096,
1.0166,
1.0251,
1.0321,
1.0387,
1.0418
]
},
"loto_coverage": {
"nominal": 0.9,
"mean_only_empirical": 0.531,
"population_empirical": 1.0,
"n_points": 32,
"by_trajectory": [
{
"held": "deuruxolitinib_THRIVE-AA1_12mg",
"n": 6,
"mean_in": 5,
"pop_in": 6
},
{
"held": "deuruxolitinib_THRIVE-AA1_8mg",
"n": 6,
"mean_in": 5,
"pop_in": 6
},
{
"held": "deuruxolitinib_THRIVE-AA2_12mg",
"n": 6,
"mean_in": 5,
"pop_in": 6
},
{
"held": "brepocitinib_NCT02974868",
"n": 7,
"mean_in": 1,
"pop_in": 7
},
{
"held": "ritlecitinib_NCT02974868",
"n": 7,
"mean_in": 1,
"pop_in": 7
}
]
}
},
"finasteride": {
"class": "finasteride",
"n_trajectories": 3,
"trajectory_ids": [
"finasteride_1mg_NCT01231607",
"finasteride_1mg_Kaufman_2yr",
"finasteride_oral_P3074_NCT03004469"
],
"lag_mean": 0.943,
"lag_sd": 0.642,
"lag_hdi90": [
0.086,
1.863
],
"between_trial_lag_sd": 0.514,
"tau_mean": 2.99,
"tau_sd": 2.237,
"tau_hdi90": [
0.109,
6.064
],
"between_trial_tau_sd": 3.3,
"sigma_mean": 0.046,
"mulag_mutau_corr": -0.118,
"prior_lag": 3.0,
"prior_tau": 6.0,
"post_band": {
"months": [
0,
0.5,
1,
1.5,
2,
3,
4,
6,
9,
12,
18,
24
],
"median": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0618,
0.2069,
0.3287,
0.5361,
0.6798,
0.8493,
0.9533,
0.9851,
0.9985,
0.9998
],
"lo": [
-0.0838,
-0.0717,
-0.0517,
-0.0311,
-0.009,
0.0843,
0.198,
0.3546,
0.5146,
0.6342,
0.7739,
0.8467
],
"hi": [
0.085,
0.7056,
0.9896,
1.012,
1.0258,
1.0432,
1.0498,
1.0602,
1.0661,
1.071,
1.0768,
1.0794
]
},
"loto_coverage": {
"nominal": 0.9,
"mean_only_empirical": 0.778,
"population_empirical": 0.889,
"n_points": 9,
"by_trajectory": [
{
"held": "finasteride_1mg_NCT01231607",
"n": 3,
"mean_in": 3,
"pop_in": 3
},
{
"held": "finasteride_1mg_Kaufman_2yr",
"n": 3,
"mean_in": 2,
"pop_in": 2
},
{
"held": "finasteride_oral_P3074_NCT03004469",
"n": 3,
"mean_in": 2,
"pop_in": 3
}
]
}
},
"dutasteride": {
"class": "dutasteride",
"n_trajectories": 2,
"trajectory_ids": [
"dutasteride_0.5mg_NCT01231607",
"dutasteride_0.5mg_NCT00441116"
],
"lag_mean": 1.096,
"lag_sd": 0.447,
"lag_hdi90": [
0.311,
1.679
],
"between_trial_lag_sd": 0.585,
"tau_mean": 2.289,
"tau_sd": 1.524,
"tau_hdi90": [
0.1,
4.196
],
"between_trial_tau_sd": 2.374,
"sigma_mean": 0.0,
"mulag_mutau_corr": -0.012,
"prior_lag": 2.5,
"prior_tau": 5.0,
"post_band": {
"months": [
0,
0.5,
1,
1.5,
2,
3,
4,
6,
9,
12,
18,
24
],
"median": [
0.0,
0.0,
0.0,
0.1809,
0.356,
0.6106,
0.7653,
0.9161,
0.9818,
0.9961,
0.9998,
1.0
],
"lo": [
-0.0,
-0.0,
-0.0,
-0.0,
0.0,
0.1394,
0.2673,
0.4566,
0.6427,
0.7483,
0.895,
0.9481
],
"hi": [
0.0,
0.284,
0.9498,
0.9995,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0,
1.0
]
},
"loto_coverage": null
}
},
"overall_coverage": {
"nominal": 0.9,
"mean_only_empirical": 0.585,
"population_empirical": 0.976,
"n_points": 41
}
}